Money Talks e-Newsletter | July 2026 |
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Happy July, just like with the soccer World Cup, it is clear to us that predicting sure winners is very hard.
We've all been there. You're at a weekend gathering, or scrolling through your social feeds, and someone confidently drops a "guaranteed winner" stock tip. The headlines are buzzing, the chart is moving up, and that sudden surge of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) clouds your judgment. You buy in, convinced you've caught the wave early.
But here is the hard reality: when a stock tip reaches your phone or makes the evening news, the smart money has already moved. You aren't early to the party; you are likely providing the exit liquidity for institutional investors who actually understood the trade. |
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The Cost of the Hype Cycle
Look at recent market history. We have seen massive, agonising swings driven purely by retail hype. SpaceX is the most recent one; everyone was talking about it, but if you invested a week after the listing, you would be down roughly 21% from its peak in mid-June (it can still go up, but it is just an example).
Investors who bought into these sectors at the absolute peak of the cycle – simply because headlines were screaming about record commodity prices or unstoppable tech valuations – got severely burned. Many watched 20% to 35% of their hard-earned capital evaporate in a matter of weeks. They mistook a temporary macro-trend for a stable, long-term investment strategy. Picking individual stocks based on social media chatter isn't investing; it is gambling on incomplete information. |
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Retirement Numbers | In my line of work, I'm often asked how much is enough for retirement. But how much is a very personal question, and the answer is for each individual.
There are, however, some rules of thumb we can use, and it can possibly be of help if you need some guidance: |
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| Whilst working and contributing to a retirement fund, a minimum of 15% of salary before deductions is a great way to get close to the target of 75% of salary replacement. |
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Another good rule of thumb is that for every R10 000 per month income, you need R2.4 million saved up to live off at retirement. |
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Where are you currently tracking? If you do not know or need assistance, let me know and we can schedule a review of your current portfolio. |
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Contact:
Mauritz Oberholzer A Financial Advisor employed by Stonehouse Capital (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP 50464) Mobile: +27 82 774 1996
E-mail: mauritz.oberholzer@stonehousecapital.co.za
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